Most observers expected Egypt and Tunisia, which exploded a year ago this month against their dictators, to have by now reached some level of stability. The military leaderships that tenuously took over, supposedly to lead the nations to genuine elections within six months, should have by now calmed the countries, gotten real constitutions written and laid the basis for new, truly elected, democratic governments.
Instead, "the people," the folks out on the street, voted 70-plus percent for Islamist candidates, about a third of them hard-line Salafists. The military is now seen as the enemy, and the constitutions remain creations in the minds of idealists.
These two countries, whose populations (Egypt, 84 million; Tunisia, 10 million) should be the leaders of responsible change in the Arab world, are in slow-motion collapse.
Little Bahrain on the Persian Gulf shouldn't be much of a pain to anyone. After all, it is essentially just an island tied to the Saudi mainland by a large raised highway over the sea. It has long housed a large American military base and was considered the most modern country in the Gulf area, particularly with regard to women's rights. The Sunni al-Khalifa family has ruled the island for more than 200 years.
Ah, one dreams! On Tuesday, the first anniversary of the pro-democracy uprising against the Sunni leaders, Bahrain blew up again, with riots that were sobering for the entire region. The fact is that Bahrain is serious, very serious.
The island has a small population of 525,000, which should bode well, but it is ruled by a Sunni royal family representing only one-third of the people. The other two-thirds are Shiites, and they are discriminated against systematically.
Bahrain is thus a microcosm of the religious conflict that poisons so much of the Middle East -- Iraq with its majority of Sunnis, and Iran with its majority Shiites and a rabidly extreme Islamist government. Small countries seem ever and always to be the testing grounds for the bigger issues.
Yemen, on the southwestern tip of Saudi Arabia and historically the home of the original Arab peoples, is also in chaos this week. The increasingly hated President Ali Abdullah Saleh has left the country "for medical treatment," but the streets of Sanaa remain full of demonstrators, and parts of the wild tribal lands of Yemen have been virtually taken over by al-Qaida as its new terrorist "homeland."
Since terrorists have not been known historically for HAVING homelands, where they tend their lawns and wash out the gutters, this could be an interesting development. However, more interesting for Yemen is the determination made by the U.N. and others that it may be the first country in the world to run out of water.
Staying at home has not been the habit of any of these terrorist elements. The Iranian Islamic Republic is now striking out across the world. Iranian fingerprints are on a string of attacks aimed at Israeli diplomats, one in faraway Thailand this week, following alleged plots in India and Georgia on Feb. 13.
This is perhaps the most dangerous development of all, because the demonstrations in Egypt and Tunisia are for the most part, revolutions WITHIN their countries. Iran, already supporting terrorist movements in Lebanon and Gaza, is dangerously supporting strikes beyond its borders. And it wants foreigners to know that no one is sacred or out of its reach.
It is instructive to take a lesson from history here -- from the year 1848. In that pivotal year, youthful republican revolts against monarchy broke out in Sicily, then spread like a firestorm, scouring Europe -- through Italy, France, Germany and the Austrian empire. They led to endless wars in Europe and, finally 100 years later, to the solid, democratic states of today.
So we must not lose spirit. Given time and patience, these modern outbreaks will result in new, better, more representative states too. They are part of the ongoing heartbeat of mankind that pushes us always onward to a new and better future.
