Why are dolphins beaching themselves? 4 theories

Scientists aren't sure why the beloved marine mammals are getting stranded in unprecedented numbers this winter. But they have a few ideas From New England to Peru, dolphins have been beaching themselves in unprecedented numbers in recent weeks. More than 177 short-beaked dolphins have been stranded on Massachusetts' Cape Cod — more than five times the normal annual number — and 124 have died. Researchers have screened the marine mammals for bacteria and viruses, analyzed tissue samples, and put tracking devices on some survivors released back into the sea, looking for a cause. "Gosh, it's a puzzle," biology professor Richard Connor tells The Boston Globe. "It's really strange." What's going on? Here, four theories:

1. Some coves and bays routinely trap dolphins
"Dolphins do wash up on Cape Cod," says Michele Wilson Berger at Audubon magazine. "In fact, it's one of the three most common spots for this to happen, along with places in Australia and New Zealand." It's "believed to be a natural consequence" of geography, says Joanna M. Foster in The New York Times. "Around the globe, hook-shaped capes appear to effectively channel dolphins and other animals into large shallow bays that experience large tides," which could explain why dolphin beachings have been reported in Cape Cod Bay since the days of the Pilgrims.

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2. It was something they ate
More than 200 dead dolphins have washed up on beaches in Chiclayo, Peru. But a potential clue — dead anchovies — has washed up beside them. Dolphins eat the tiny fish, leading the Peruvian Sea Institute to theorize that whatever killed the anchovies "could have poisoned the dolphins," says Liz Klimas at The Blaze.

3. Humans might be to blame
With no obvious culprit, scientists aren't ruling anything out, including explanations linked to humans. Man-made climate change, for instance, may have driven dolphins' prey into unfamiliar waters. The use of naval sonar could also be a factor. "We don't have that single answer," International Fund for Animal Welfare rescue and research manager Katie Moore tells the Cape Cod Times. "We want to look into every possible cause."

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4. Maybe it's the weather
This year's unusually warm winter is affecting everything from animal reproductive cycles to hibernation patterns on land. "The change could also somehow be impacting dolphins," says Jennifer Viegas at Discovery News. "Unusual weather... is likely the main driving force, even if it is fueling some other secondary problems, such as the emergence of pathogens."

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Why Sarah Palin wants a brokered convention: 3 theories

Though she's sitting out the primaries, the Alaskan warns that "all bets are off" if no candidate has enough delegates to be nominated at August's GOP convention Here we go again: Former GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is getting supporters and detractors all riled up, telling Fox News that if the GOP goes into its August convention without a clear nominee, we "could be looking at a brokered convention" and that "all bets are off." The Alaskan polarizer referred to other dark-horse candidates "willing to offer themselves up...in service to their country," adding ambiguously, "I would do whatever I could to help." Does that mean Palin wants the primaries to end in deadlock, with none of the four remaining candidates equipped with enough delegates to win? Here, three theories on why that may be exactly what Palin's hoping for:

1. A brokered convention would make Palin relevant again
In the "very unlikely" event of a brokered convention — in which a nominee is selected through political horse-trading and backroom deals — the GOP would be engulfed in "total chaos," says Rachel Weiner at The Washington Post. That, in theory, could be good for Palin. She has faded from view and her clout has diminished, but she likely figures that a scenario in which her name is bandied about as a potential nominee would offer her a "return to relevance." She thrives on primary voters' dissatisfaction with their current options, and the longer GOP voters fail to rally behind one candidate, "the more attention she will get as a standard-bearer for unhappy conservatives."

SEE MORE: Is Sarah Palin still a threat to Obama?

2. She still thinks she can be the nominee
"Oh man, do we feel like idiots!" says Jim Newell at Wonkette. Now we see that "lazy ol'" Palin has always wanted a brokered convention so party officials would "ask her to jump in the race" after she got to sit out the actual campaign. Yeah, "this way she didn't have to do the hard stuff like campaignin' and debatin'," says TBogg at Firedoglake. Joke if you must, says Jules Witcover at the Baltimore Sun, but "in this crazy Republican year, it seems anything is possible."

3. She legitimately wants to help her party
Palin really has something to offer if she wants to be useful, says Brandon Kiser at The Right Sphere. It pains some Republicans to say it, but she has undeniable "pull" with conservatives, and she could use it to get supporters of Newt Gingrich, say, or Rick Santorum to "coalesce" behind one candidate, even if it's an establishment candidate like Jeb Bush or Mitch Daniels. "'They may be establishment,' she'll say, 'but they're conservative — and that’s what we need to defeat Barack Obama.'" I, for one, would "like to see that speech."

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Why China should bail out the eurozone: 3 theories

The EU is practically begging for a financial lifeline from the world's most populous nation. China isn't eager to get involved — but maybe it should be As the European debt crisis lurches into its third year, super-rich China finds itself with cash-strapped European suitors lining up on its doorstep. With $3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, China appears to be in prime position to provide a lifeline to the debt-beleaguered continent. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao recently pledged China's aid, but his vague promise didn't entail any firm commitments, and many Chinese officials are still wary of exposing the country to risky bonds from Greece and other debt-burdened European nations. But maybe they should think again. Here, three reasons why China would be wise to rescue Europe:

1. If Europe falters, it would cripple China's economy 
China's economic growth could be cut in half if the eurozone enters a recession, warns the International Monetary Fund. With annual trade valued at 560 billion euros ($730 billion), Europe is China's largest trading partner. In addition, Chinese business investments in Europe more than doubled from 2010 to 2011. Propping up Europe now could forestall a far-more-expensive economic collapse down the road.

SEE MORE: Will debt downgrades doom the eurozone recovery?

2. China could gain political leverage over the West
In "desperate need of financial support," Europe might be willing to make big political concessions to China, writes Thomas H. Naylor at CounterPunch. For instance, as a prerequisite for aid, China demand that the West quit threatening Iran over its nuclear program. Such a move would "effectively checkmate" the U.S. and Israel. "All of this makes Washington very nervous," and the U.S. "does not relish the thought of the EU becoming financially dependent on Beijing."

3. China could also bolster its clout at the IMF 
China should "pony up," writes Wayne Arnold at Reuters, but buying European bonds directly is "too risky." Instead, China should funnel its aid through the IMF — and thereby earn a "bigger role at the world's currency watchdog." The U.S. dollar is still the world's reserve currency, which leaves China vulnerable to the whims of U.S. monetary policy. China views the IMF as the "best counterbalance to such tides," and winning more influence at the powerful organization ought to be a "no-brainer."

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The Tea Party's waning influence: 4 theories

Nevada was a hotbed of Tea Party activity in the 2010 midterms, but in the weekend's GOP presidential caucuses, the Silver State activists' least favorite candidate, Mitt Romney, trounced the field. In Colorado — which, along with Minnesota and Missouri, picks its preference for the GOP presidential nominee on Tuesday — the Tea Partiers who dominated the political scene two years ago are no longer holding many rallies. And now an Ohio Tea Party leader tells The Daily Beast that while the movement may have been a giant killer in 2010, it's "dead" and "gone" this year. What happened? Here, four theories:

1. Tea Partiers never settled on one candidate
"If the Tea Party could get behind one person and call it a day," says Patricia Murphy at The Daily Beast, it could be a force in the presidential election. But the conservative politicians that small-government, anti-tax activists truly love — Sens. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.), for example — aren't running. Instead, Tea Partiers must choose from a field of candidates that all have "original sins against constitutional freedom or fiscal sanity." Tea Partiers aren't excited or in sync, and as a result, "for the Tea Party movement, the 2012 presidential primaries have been a bust."

SEE MORE: Is the GOP presidential field a Tea Party failure?

2. And now they're reluctantly settling for Romney
"Not Romney" has been the favorite choice of Tea Party activists, Chris Littleton, co-founder of a Tea Party coalition called the Ohio Liberty Council, tells The Daily Beast. But after consecutive wins in Florida and Nevada, the former Massachusetts governor looks increasingly like the inevitable Republican nominee. So Romney has begun picking up an increasing share of the Tea Party vote, says Kristen Wyatt for the Associated Press. It seems many Tea Partiers are "reluctantly backing him after abandoning hope of finding a nominee they like better."

3. The Tea Party's influence was overstated in the first place
Maybe Tea Partiers never really were the backbone of the GOP base, says Gene Smith at the Fayetteville, N.C., Observer. Instead, they made up "a mere appendage (albeit a large one) that achieved a fleeting fame" while doing battle with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Once they succeeded in "bullying a tremulous speaker," Tea Partiers simply went back to the sidelines.

4. Tea Party influence isn't waning — it has evolved
Tea Party rallies are so 2010. "People realize it is time to move beyond rallies and into other efforts," Jeff Crank, head of the Colorado chapter of the Tea Party-linked Americans for Prosperity, tells the Durango, Colo., Herald. While many activists have rolled up their "Don't tread on me" flags and gone home, the core of the movement still wields considerable influence through the 85 new Republican congressional representatives they helped elect in 2010. "On their own, the small, decentralized Tea Party groups have had a hard time getting involved in the presidential race," says Joe Hanel in the Herald. But they'll still make their presence known in local congressional races. They haven't disappeared; they've just "evolved."

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Why GOP voters are sitting out the primaries: 4 theories

Mitt Romney handily won the Nevada GOP presidential caucuses on Saturday, taking 50 percent of the votes and all but three counties. However, only about 33,000 people caucused — 10,000 fewer than four years ago, and about half the number state Republicans were predicting. The disappointing turnout follows underwhelming Republican participation in Iowa, New Hampshire, and especially Florida. Aren't Republican voters supposed to be "fired up to dispose of the Obama presidency?" asks Ed Rogers at The Washington Post. Maybe not. Here, four explanations for the GOP's lagging turnout:

1. GOP voters are disappointed with the candidates
Democrats voted in their primaries and caucuses in record numbers in 2008 because they had "two candidates with fervent support," says Carter Eskew at The Washington Post. This year's shrinking GOP numbers "support the general consensus that the field is weak," and Republicans are reacting with a "curious" indifference. "There's a lot of people not satisfied with any of the candidates out there," said one of those candidates, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), on Sunday. "And that's why in many ways we're seeing a lower turnout right now."

SEE MORE: Is Nevada's Tea Party too dysfunctional to trip up Mitt Romney?

2. Actually, it's just Romney who fails to excite voters
"When Newt Gingrich surged in South Carolina, he brought along massive gains in turnout — record turnout, in fact," says Mathew D. Staver in The Washington Times. When Romney "surged" in Florida, turnout dropped 12 percent. Clearly, the real problem isn't the GOP field, it's Romney. In his big Nevada win, Romney trounced his opponents with... just under 16,500 votes, says Dean Esmay at Dean's World. "Romney's Achilles heel continues to be voter enthusiasm," and it will be a problem when "dispirited conservatives" stay home in November.

3. Negative campaigning is turning off voters
Sure, Romney isn't a particularly strong frontrunner, says Mike Smithson in Britain's The Telegraph. But this is more about "the impact of negative campaigning." After a brutal, exceedingly expensive slash-and-burn ad blitz between Romney and Gingrich in Florida, turnout plummeted. "There have been a number of academic studies that suggest that while negative campaigning can motivate the base of support it can also alienate other voters, thus reducing voter turnout."

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4. Saturday caucuses are inconvenient
The average GOP voter ardently wants Obama to be a one-term president, but doesn't much care which candidate replaces him, say Nevada Republicans — at least not enough to give up a Saturday. "Republicans are excited to get a new president in," Nevada GOP official David Buell tells the Las Vegas Sun. "Are they excited about going to a caucus? Apparently not."

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Why Russia won't take a stand against Syria: 4 theories

Moscow and Beijing block a United Nations effort to condemn Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. What is Russia hoping to gain?

Just as Syria stepped up shelling on the rebel stronghold of Homs, Russia and China outraged the West over the weekend by vetoing a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for its deadly crackdown on anti-government protesters. Russia and China called the proposal "unbalanced," arguing that it focused solely on Assad without targeting armed opposition groups. Moscow maintains that it wants to promote stability and democratic reform, and will dispatch Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to meet with Assad this week. Susan Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., says Russia is just trying to "shield a craven tyrant." Why is Moscow really standing in the way of the international effort to oust Assad? Here, four theories: 

1. Syria is key to Russia's Middle East strategy
Moscow wants to hang onto its "sole major foothold in the Arab world," say William Maclean and Steve Gutterman at Reuters. Syria was a client of the Soviet Union, and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who hopes to return to the presidency in March, wants to keep it in his orbit. With good reason, says Juan Cole at Informed Comment. Syria hosts Russia's only base on the Mediterranean. Without Syria, Russia can't counter the U.S. in the Middle East.

SEE MORE: Has the Arab League failed in Syria?

2. Syria spends a fortune on Russian weapons
"The fact that Russia still supplies arms to the Syrian security forces clearly weighed heavily on the vote," says David Dayen at Firedoglake. Syria is the largest importer of Russian weapons in the Middle East. Assad's regime has signed contracts for 24 MiG-29M/M2 fighter jets and eight Buk-M2E air-defense systems. Another deal for anti-ship defenses armed with supersonic cruise missiles is in the works. Russia doesn't want to lose this lucrative relationship.

3. Russia doesn't think it's the U.N.'s job to fix Syria
"Moscow fully accepts that Syria has serious internal problems," says Charles Crawford at Britain's Telegraph, "but takes the view that those problems are for Syrians themselves to sort out." Russia is willing to wait and see whether "the opposition forces lined up against Assad are tough enough to do what it takes — including incurring casualties on a massive scale, tens of thousands of casualties more than anything seen so far — to overthrow him without sneaky Western direct military support, as was given in Libya."

SEE MORE: Is Syria's election a sham?

4. Russia fears another Libya
Russia and China "had their fingers burned" by failing to block last year's resolution on Libya, says Cole at Informed Comment, only to see the U.N.-authorized no-fly zone transformed into an instrument of regime change. They don't want to see that happen again. But the Libya solution probably wouldn't work in Syria, anyway, says Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway. "The Syrians don't seem to be using air power against civilians and rebelling military elements the way the Libyans did." This is urban warfare, which is far harder to fight from the air, and "I seriously doubt that there's any nation on Earth that would be willing to send ground troops into Syria at this point."

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